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China's manufacturing PMI fell slightly in November, but non-manufacturing industry still maintains expansion momentum

Abstract: In November 2023, China's manufacturing PMI dropped slightly to 49.4%, limited by factors such as insufficient market demand, while the non-manufacturing business activity index remained at 50.2%, continuing to show an expansion trend. Large enterprises performed relatively well, while small and medium-sized enterprises faced challenges. The article also puts forward fiscal policy suggestions to stimulate economic recovery.

According to data released on December 1, 2023, China's manufacturing PMI dropped slightly in November, recording 49.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from October. This was mainly affected by the dual impact of the traditional off-season and insufficient market demand. Despite this, the decline in the manufacturing industry has narrowed significantly compared with the previous month, showing a certain degree of stability.

In addition, the non-manufacturing business activity index recorded 50.2% in November. Although it dropped 0.4 percentage points from October, it still remained in the expansion range. This shows that the non-manufacturing sector continues to show relatively healthy growth.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics further revealed that the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs reached 51.6% and 51.2% respectively, an increase from October. This shows that despite the slight decline in the overall manufacturing PMI, some industries still maintain strong growth momentum.

In terms of market demand, the manufacturing new orders index fell slightly to 49.4%, while the new export orders index fell to 46.3%, declining for the second consecutive month. This reflects a further contraction in external demand and also highlights signs that domestic demand is beginning to gradually expand.

For small and medium-sized enterprises, the situation is more severe. Their PMI indexes are 48.8% and 47.8% respectively, showing a relatively sluggish prosperity level. In contrast, the PMI of large enterprises is 50.5%, which has remained in the expansion range for six consecutive months, indicating that the production demand of large enterprises continues to be released, and the situation is relatively optimistic.

In terms of business confidence, the manufacturing production and operation activity expectation index was 55.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from October. This shows that manufacturing companies continue to remain optimistic about market development prospects.

Regarding the path of economic recovery, experts suggest that proactive fiscal policies should be strengthened, especially in investment in infrastructure and public goods. By enhancing government investment support, it can effectively promote enterprises' willingness to invest in production and accelerate economic recovery.

Overall, although China's manufacturing PMI was lowered in November, the non-manufacturing industry still maintained an expansion trend, showing the resilience and potential growth momentum of the Chinese economy.

(Source: Shanghai Securities News)